Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Background: Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective: The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts. Data & Methods: The proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+. Results: Illustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-average procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males. Conclusion: We find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification

A prospective, multi-site, cohort study to estimate incidence of infection and disease due to Lassa fever virus in West African countries (the Enable Lassa research programme)–Study protocol

Background Lassa fever (LF), a haemorrhagic illness caused by the Lassa fever virus (LASV), is endemic in West Africa and causes 5000 fatalities every year. The true prevalence and incidence rates of LF are unknown as infections are often asymptomatic, clinical presentations are varied, and surveillance systems are not robust. The aim of the Enable Lassa research programme is to estimate the incidences of LASV infection and LF disease in five West African countries. The core protocol described here harmonises key study components, such as eligibility criteria, case definitions, outcome measures, and laboratory tests, which will maximise the comparability of data for between-country analyses. Method We are conducting a prospective cohort study in Benin, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria (three sites), and Sierra Leone from 2020 to 2023, with 24 months of follow-up. Each site will assess the incidence of LASV infection, LF disease, or both. When both incidences are assessed the LASV cohort (nmin = 1000 per site) will be drawn from the LF cohort (nmin = 5000 per site). During recruitment participants will complete questionnaires on household composition, socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics, and LF history, and blood samples will be collected to determine IgG LASV serostatus. LF disease cohort participants will be contacted biweekly to identify acute febrile cases, from whom blood samples will be drawn to test for active LASV infection using RT-PCR. Symptom and treatment data will be abstracted from medical records of LF cases. LF survivors will be followed up after four months to assess sequelae, specifically sensorineural hearing loss. LASV infection cohort participants will be asked for a blood sample every six months to assess LASV serostatus (IgG and IgM). Discussion Data on LASV infection and LF disease incidence in West Africa from this research programme will determine the feasibility of future Phase IIb or III clinical trials for LF vaccine candidates

Telling good stories: engaging in dialogue with communities about flood and coastal erosion risk management in a post-modern society

This paper suggests that new approaches are required to communicate with communities affected by flooding and coastal erosion. In post-modern society, communities question the validity of the message. They have expectations of the medium of the message. They receive the message through the frameworks of their multiple stories and identities. The personal narratives and experiences within a local community seek recognition and voice alongside the official statements and claims of the engineering and scientific community. Objectivity and reliability are challenged. The authority of the formal written word, communicating at a cognitive and rational level, takes its place alongside new oral and visual traditions. Technology allows individual stories to reach a wider and more immediate audience. A single, general story is replaced by a multiplicity of particular stories from local communities and individuals. NGOs have followed the media in becoming adept at using all these aspects of communication. Effective approaches to communication acknowledge the different cultures of the professional and citizen communities (e.g. residential, fishing farming sailing) involved in interacting with FCERM. The paper will examine the way in which stories and storytelling can be used as a bridge between different cultures, creating communities of practice in which knowledge may be shared and sense made of common problems. It suggests some devices which can be used in effective storytelling to help us put our own messages across. Drawing on recent experiences (for example during recent major disasters such as Boscastle), the paper also explains how stories can work for us as we uncover the information buried in the stories of others. Story telling may also be important in establishing shared fields of experience with communities. This needs to be in the context of effective dialogue that seeks to hear and understand what each community is trying to communicate, based on mutual respect or humility. This humility recognises the value of both the practical knowledge, lodged in the experiences and stories within communities, and the analysis and judgement of professionals as they reflect on and contextualise that experience for future decision making

Dysregulated Epstein-Barr virus infection in patients with CIDP

Ubiquitous viruses have frequently been proposed as a cause or trigger of chronic immune-mediated diseases. Infections are reported to be temporally associated with clinical exacerbations in patients with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP). We examined immunological parameters of herpesvirus infections in untreated patients with CIDP compared to demographically matched controls. Patients with CIDP were uniformly seropositive for EBV-specific IgG and the disease was associated with a moderately enhanced IgG reactivity to EBV-encoded antigens expressed during both B cell transformation and productive viral replication. Moreover, cellular EBV copy numbers were 3-fold increased in patients with CIDP. In contrast, humoral immune responses to other herpesviruses (HCMV, HSV) as well as virus-specific IgM responses were unchanged in CIDP. These data indicate that host-pathogen interactions during chronic EBV infection are dysregulated in treatment-naïve patients with CIDP